Edward Lucas in his forthcoming book "The New Cold War." believes that Russia- Ukraine tensions would herald the start of a new War. A sentiment shared , but differed on the nature of the war itself. While i believe it might give impetus to a new phase of Cold war he asserts it as the start of new World War
EDWARD LUCAS: I hope I'm wrong but historians may look
back and say this was the start of World War III
However Russia is too smart to start a new war by annexing the highly industrialized Donetsk in the manner similar to German annexation of the industrial part of Czechoslovakia known as Sudetenland before World War 2. There would not be a repeat of the Munich. Russia aims to go for Federalization of Ukraine with more power being devolved to Russian speaking minorities. This would cause Ukraine to be away from the NATO bloc and give Russia the buffer that it desires against NATO.
Post the collapse of USSR, the new Soviet Republics due to faulty division had various Russian speaking minorities located in them. This was not done intentionally but in a federation as USSR was it had no consequence in the times preceding the 1991. However now with the accession of Crimea into Russia it was natural that countries that surround it would have insecurities that have russian population and share borders with it. Hence the presence of US troops in those countries. Estonia is long known to have high Russian speaking population in it. There have been some Media Reports that these population have felt dis-empowered as Russian is not a language and as second class citizens. The deployment of US troops there is meant to soothe the nerves of Estonia Government against a possible Russian invasion. Ditto for Poland that witnessed the deployment of US troops, which in the World War 2 had to face attack on both the fronts against Germans and Soviets.
Amidst the lingering fears in EU about Russian expansion into Europe it must be always remembered that sharing a long running boundary with NATO is the last desire of Russia rather it is fine with having buffer states that share boundary with NATO. This would reduce the chance of NATO interfering into Russia and reaching it directly.
Credit: Daily Mail
In the case of Crimea i believe it was different, Russia acceded it due to its strategic value and proximity to the Black Sea. Something that Russia has always valued and acknowledged by the President himself in his State Address. With Russia being the largest country in the World and sharing the largest border in the world (along with various border disputes) itself being a Herculean challenge it will have very less incentive to start a new War , more over it will have even lower incentive to let this tension get out of hand into a new World War as the Author Edward Lucas claims. Rather it will go for increasing friendships towards Asia , especially reaching out to China (which finds itself mysteriously flooded with new friends), India (after the present elections are over), Belarus, Armenia (will be given gas discounts, security), other like minded countries, to avoid getting isolated in the International Scene.
Russia would also have its mind occupied with exploiting the Polar region resources something that the Economist Conference displayed. There would be tension will be played out there as well as other non-Arctic countries eg China, India too would be keen to use its navigation facilities and reduce the reliance on the Suez Canal.
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INSTA IR EXPERT :o)
It is great to know that my view point has been approved by an expert in the field. David Ignatius's "A Finland model for Ukraine" published in The Hindu Newspaper on May 22 2014 in essence dwells on the same idea of neutral ukraine though it is used for another outcome.
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