Too much to ask………..?
Hundred
years before in 1914, a minor problem between Austria and Serbia was caused
by the assassination of Archduke., At
that time it was thought to be a central European problem. Many banks and
economists disregarded it as a minor problem and continued with business in a
normal way and they behaved as if they were unaffected by it, even after the
war escalated by involving various member states of Europe. It was believed to
be a local problem as common sense of finance would make a long drawn out war
unsustainable. Long drawn out war between European nations was also thought to
be unviable as the inflation that accompanied the war ended up damaging the
value of currency, a task that the Central Banks held quite dear considering
that it was the era of Gold Standard wherein value of currency was tied to the
gold. In fact JM Keynes disagreed with anyone who was of the view that the war
would be long drawn out. The financial integration of Europe, prevalence of economic
prosperity based on the Gold Standard and realisation that war gave pyrrhic
victory in nature as illustrated in Daily Mail by Norman Agnell. His theory
that war had no benefits as it damaged financial and commercial linkages between
nations, damaged international credit; thus war in Europe if present must come
to a swift end, was widely accepted view among
the elites, administration and organisation of various countries.
The
war continued by relying heavily on war-time finances which included taxes, borrowings and other means possible
by belligerent nations which resulted in
severe inflation. This war among the member nations gradually involved in
various other countries and colonies located on the other continent. At nascent
stage of this war, people were not aware about its genesis or the reason for
war. However, the fighting continued with many lives being sacrificed. The war long drawn out between Allied and
Axis powers drew public attention only when it caused many deaths and resources
were drained out. At the end of this war the unavoidable outcome, inflation and
the world lay in ruins. Known as the Great War by then, it was believed that
this war would end all the other wars. Moreover, due to the World War II that
broke out again in Europe, the earlier war was termed as the World War I. World
War II was followed by Cold War between USA and USSR along with their allies
which caused tensions at the World Stage.
These
two wars exposed the belief that nations would be sane to consider the high
cost of war. In 1914 Germany and Russia were the rising powers who found
themselves in war with each other. It was based on the conflict between the
concepts of Pan Slavism and Pan Germanism. Pan Slavism followed by Russia which
believed that all the Slavs must be united under the leadership of Russia who
was to function as the protector of Slavs, Pan Germanism endorsed by Germany
was the belief that all Germans must unite under the guidance of strong Germany.
Thus a localised conflict between Serbia and Austria dragged in Russia and
Germany. Britain then was a fading power that wanted to
keep a grip on the centre stage of the world.
(Wikipedia)
Fast
forward to 2014, we find that Russia has re-emerged, China is the rising power
and US in the same position as that of Britain which wants to keep its
influence on the world scene. The international commentators were awash with
the speculation that US’s manoeuvres on the Pacific that was seen to counter
China might prove the flash point to stoke the embers of another conflagration
that would draw in many nations. However, in an unlikely scenario, post the toppling
of previous Ukraine Government Russia has integrated with Crimea, an isolated
Peninsula in Black Sea, as reported by Reuters. Similar to Pan Slavism and Pan
Germanism at present there also could be the case made out for Pan Russianism a
concept wherein Russia acted with interest to secure the rights of the Russian
speaking people. Post to the collapse of USSR there exists Russians as minority
in the Republics that formed out of USSR. This was the cause to the present
action undertaken by Russia in Crimea. While the presence of nuclear weapons
emerges as a strong factor for avoiding of the occurrence of all out war, the probability
for Cold War to restart yet persists.
The arrival of US troops in Poland to begin the Military Trials as reported by RT
and the presence of Russian troops at the Russian border would only serve to attenuate the Crisis.
(Reuters)
It
remains to be seen, if it is too much to ask for faith in the rationality of
nations.
PS:
This blog is dedicated to Praveen Swami, who i believe is the best wrt International Relations.
